Ring 4: Odds

Problem: Risk Assessment: $\text{70\%}$ chance of sun ($\text{+\$100}$ profit), $\text{30\%}$ chance of rain ($\text{-\$20}$ loss). Is it smart to open your stand?

Numerical Proof: Concept: Uses Expected Value (EV). $\text{EV} = (\text{+100} \times 0.70) + (\text{-20} \times 0.30) = \text{\$64}$. Since EV is positive, it's a smart bet.

The Discovery: You discover how to put a number on uncertainty and weigh potential outcomes (Expected Value) to make smart, risk-adjusted decisions.

Certification Problems

Visual Theme: Balancing contrasting outcomes based on weighted probability.

Action: Two teens look at a tablet displaying a forecast: "Sunshine: 70%" and "Rain: 30%".

The Scene: The background splits into two contrasting scenes: one sunny with a large money bag icon (+$100) and one rainy with a broken money bag icon (-$20).

Key Highlights: A conceptual balance beam or scale visually tips in favor of the sunny/profit side.

Symbols: A target icon.

Final Prompt: "Concept Illustration, Educational Cartoon, Clean Vector Style, Landscape Aspect Ratio. Two teens looking at a forecast: 'Sunshine: 70%' and 'Rain: 30%'. Background shows contrasting scenes: one sunny with a money bag icon (+$100), one rainy with a broken money bag icon (-$20). A balance beam or scale visually tips toward the profit side. Include a target icon. Contrasting, clear colors."

The Polya Studio

The Polya Studio

Ring 4: Odds

Certification Problems

The Polya Studio

Ring 4: Odds

Certification Problems

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